What It Would Mean If Israel Killed Muhammad Sinwar
On May 13, Israeli sources confirmed that the IDF had targeted Muhammad Sinwar—Hamas’s top military commander in Gaza—in a precision strike on an underground command node buried beneath the European Hospital in Khan Younis. As of now, Sinwar’s fate remains unknown. But if Israel succeeded in killing him, the consequences would be strategically significant and psychologically profound.
Muhammad Sinwar is not a symbolic target. He was one of the principal architects of Hamas’s war. As the brother of Yahya Sinwar—Hamas’s leader in Gaza until his reported death—and commander of Hamas’s elite Nukhba Force, Muhammad Sinwar helped plan and execute the October 7 massacre. After the death of Mohammed Deif, he assumed de facto control of Hamas’s military operations within Gaza. He also oversaw Hamas’s vast tunnel infrastructure—an underground network of more than 400 miles used to move fighters, store weapons, and shield command centers beneath civilian areas. That system is central to how Hamas wages war while hiding behind the population it claims to defend.
If his death is confirmed, it would represent the collapse of Hamas’s top Gaza-based leadership. Hamas is not an amorphous guerrilla force. It relies on centralized planning, subterranean communications, and an integrated command structure. Eliminating Sinwar would further fracture that system and disrupt Hamas’s ability to coordinate and adapt under pressure.
Still, wars are not won by removing names from a list. Wars are won when the enemy no longer retains the ability and will to pursue their strategy.
For Hamas, that strategy is not battlefield victory. It is a radical, ideological war of annihilation—a generational campaign driven by a hardened will to destroy Israel at any cost. Even without its top commanders, that threat endures if its infrastructure, ideology, and fighters remain.
The death of Sinwar—if confirmed—would be a blow to that structure. He was not just a battlefield commander; he was a lynchpin in the operational and psychological system that kept Hamas fighting from underground while hiding behind civilians.
This war has now lasted more than 18 months. And its complexity has been compounded by Israel having to simultaneously manage conflict across seven fronts—Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Judea and Samaria, Yemen, Iran, and global disinformation and lawfare. Israel has also operated under political constraints, including pressure and threats from the Biden administration. It has faced the psychological toll of hostages held in captivity, and it has had to fight an enemy that uses schools, mosques, and hospitals as human shields, knowing international scrutiny will be weaponized against the IDF.
In that context, every successful strike against Hamas’s leadership is more than tactical—it is a message. Despite every constraint, Israel retains the initiative, intelligence superiority, and strategic clarity to dismantle Hamas piece by piece.
If Sinwar is dead, it would mark the end of Hamas’s operational leadership behind the October 7 massacre. But that does not yet equal victory.
What comes next is even more decisive: Israel is poised to launch a major ground campaign to fully clear and hold key areas of Gaza. This approach, if executed with sustained momentum, has the right strategic intent: not just to kill terrorists, but to destroy Hamas’s military and political power and deny it the ability to rebuild.
That is how war is won. Not just by eliminating individuals, but by breaking the enemy’s ability to continue pursuing its strategy.
If this strike did kill Muhammad Sinwar, it would be a significant milestone. But the mission remains: return all hostages, dismantle Hamas’s military and political structure, demilitarize the Gaza Strip, and ensure that no terror regime ever again has the means, space, or time to attack the Israeli people.
John Spencer is executive director of the Urban Warfare Institute. He is the coauthor of Understanding Urban Warfare.
Learn more at www.johnspenceronline.com
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