I hope that the strike was successful. But I wonder if they have a few completed or partially completed weapons hidden somewhere. But even if this were the case, these facilities were part of the industrial complex required to manufacture a large number of these weapons and refine them long term.
The Iranian Government has spent enormously on this program as well as the build up of their proxies in Hamas and Hezbollah.
Over the last year that investment has pretty much gone down the drain.
Wondering if Iran will try to close the Strait of Hormuz to oil and gas tankers. Would impact their sales to China, however, but drive up world oil and gas prices.
Sure, Iran still may have some ability to build bombs. I suspect that only the Iranians know the answer to this, and maybe there is some stuff they don’t know yet.
But it’s one thing to have a few devices, and completely another to have an industrial base that can build, refine and integrate weapons in large volumes into ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones. They built that up over years and probably spent hundreds of billions of dollars on delicate, high precision electronics and machinery.
I suspect that a good chunk of that has been damaged or destroyed, along with a bunch of senior and mid level engineers who have a lot of the connections and institutional knowledge required to put it all back together again.
But nothing guarantees that we won’t wake up one morning and hear that they have successfully tested a bomb in the desert somewhere.
My problem with Spencer - and why I’m not renewing - is that he’s lost his objectivity. There’s a token nod to - of course, we’ll have to wait for a damage assessment. But that’s not enough. The triumphalist tone and failure to objectively assess risks, trade-offs, unknowns, is disappointing. He has unrivaled chops to do all that.
There are risks to military action. There would have been risks to an agreement with Iran. I’m not saying he’s wrong - but give me a balance sheet
Another, more serious, analysis from Phillips O’Brien
I’d really like Mr. Spencer to respond to this thread by leading nuclear expert Jeffrey Lewis, raising serious questions about whether the strikes succeeded.
I hope that the strike was successful. But I wonder if they have a few completed or partially completed weapons hidden somewhere. But even if this were the case, these facilities were part of the industrial complex required to manufacture a large number of these weapons and refine them long term.
The Iranian Government has spent enormously on this program as well as the build up of their proxies in Hamas and Hezbollah.
Over the last year that investment has pretty much gone down the drain.
Wondering if Iran will try to close the Strait of Hormuz to oil and gas tankers. Would impact their sales to China, however, but drive up world oil and gas prices.
We don’t know for sure that Iran’s capacity to make a bomb has been “shattered.”
It’s unwise to make categorical pronouncements. Yes they could have stuff that’s hidden or not destroyed
Good thread here by Jeffrey Lewis.
https://x.com/armscontrolwonk/status/1936955686174466551?s=61&t=EUEPNorcS2G_uwppF61fMQ
Sure, Iran still may have some ability to build bombs. I suspect that only the Iranians know the answer to this, and maybe there is some stuff they don’t know yet.
But it’s one thing to have a few devices, and completely another to have an industrial base that can build, refine and integrate weapons in large volumes into ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones. They built that up over years and probably spent hundreds of billions of dollars on delicate, high precision electronics and machinery.
I suspect that a good chunk of that has been damaged or destroyed, along with a bunch of senior and mid level engineers who have a lot of the connections and institutional knowledge required to put it all back together again.
But nothing guarantees that we won’t wake up one morning and hear that they have successfully tested a bomb in the desert somewhere.
That last sentence - exactly.
My problem with Spencer - and why I’m not renewing - is that he’s lost his objectivity. There’s a token nod to - of course, we’ll have to wait for a damage assessment. But that’s not enough. The triumphalist tone and failure to objectively assess risks, trade-offs, unknowns, is disappointing. He has unrivaled chops to do all that.
There are risks to military action. There would have been risks to an agreement with Iran. I’m not saying he’s wrong - but give me a balance sheet
Another, more serious, analysis from Phillips O’Brien
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/so-trump-bombed-iran-thankfully-wars
Maybe it didn’t change everything
Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites, sources say
https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/24/politics/intel-assessment-us-strikes-iran-nuclear-sites
I’d really like Mr. Spencer to respond to this thread by leading nuclear expert Jeffrey Lewis, raising serious questions about whether the strikes succeeded.
https://x.com/armscontrolwonk/status/1936955686174466551?s=61&t=EUEPNorcS2G_uwppF61fMQ